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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."