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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.